Home > Uncategorized > 2012/01/03: Quick Post: Observations and Weekly Reports & Events Calendar Now Available

2012/01/03: Quick Post: Observations and Weekly Reports & Events Calendar Now Available

© 2012 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

The full calendar is available through the link in the right hand column. This week is the important first economic data release week of the month, yet is less crowded in its way than some of the very intense reporting and major international meeting weeks the markets experienced last Fall. That is due in large measure to the significant reduction in officially scheduled central bank influences this week.

In addition to the continued sharp influences from any developments on the European Sovereign Debt Crisis, there is also going to be quite an impact from important scheduled economic reports and political news like the Republican Iowa Caucuses, yet fewer scheduled events and communication from central banks and bankers along with important government debt auctions.

This week is the important first economic data release week of the month, yet after this afternoon’s release of the FOMC minutes from its December 13th meeting, there is nothing until Friday’s cluster of speeches from various Federal Reserve members. The week still culminates in the typical first Friday of the month release of the US Employment report, where some modest further improvement is expected once again over last month’s addition of 120,000 jobs to Non-Farm Payrolls.

General Market Observations

Regarding the markets, better-than-expected Purchasing Managers’ Indices along with an unexpectedly large drop in German Unemployment is acting as quite a tonic for the equity markets this morning. March S&P 500 future is already above its 1,270 resistance, with the key further Tolerance being the late October lead contract 1,280.90 high post weekly Close.

However, our instinct at the top of the year is to remain circumspect pending further market activity during this very crowded economic data release week. There is also the consideration that once again the other asset classes are not fully reflecting the sort of activity that might be expected if the equities are indeed out on another major bullish push.

EXTENDED TREND IMPLICATIONS

March T-note future is holding so far at no worse than its mid 130-00 support, with more major support waiting in the upper 129-00 area. The same can be said for other long-dated government bond markets.

Similarly in foreign exchange, the US Dollar Index has failed to drop back below its late year .7950 UP Break, which is the complement to the euro failing to push back above resistance at EUR/USD 1.3050-80 even if it did manage to hold its 1.2860 support in a quiet holiday trade last week.

The energy market is up again today as well, but that is somewhat a subset of Middle East concerns rather than a purely economic indication; and is ultimately not at all constructive for equities if the February Crude Oil future continues to push up for any extended move back above its recent 102.00-103.00 resistance in the near-term. February Gold future is also up today, yet has very significant resistance from its previous major channel DOWN Break and weekly MA-41 anywhere in the 1,615-30 range.

All in all it would seem it is going to take a much more sustained upside escape from the equities (i.e. the March S&P 500 future posting a weekly Close above that previous lead contract 1,281 high post Close noted above) to confirm the top-of-the-year strength is sustainable beyond these first few days of the year.

Thanks for your interest.

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