Home > Uncategorized > 2011/12/05: Quick Post: Observations and Weekly Reports & Events Calendar Now Available

2011/12/05: Quick Post: Observations and Weekly Reports & Events Calendar Now Available

© 2011 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

The full calendar is available through the link in the right hand column. This is such a robust week once again, it is impossible to include anything but a fraction of the major influences in an overview. Yet, key aspects will be those that relate to the continuing debt and fiscal reform problems in Europe and much less so US influences that are lighter this week.

In addition to the continued sharp influences from the attempts to address the European Sovereign Debt Crisis, there is also going to be quite an impact from important scheduled reports, communication from central banks and bankers on five rate decision meetings this week, yet with much lighter government debt auctions.

Of course, with the economic data having been somewhat weak this morning so far, a lot of what transpires later this week will depend upon what comes out of the now critical attempts to address the European Sovereign Debt Crisis. Prior to reviewing the highlights of this week’s report and event flow it is important to note the December S&P 500 future rally back above the 1,240-50 area puts the burden of proof on the bears to push it not only back below that area once again, but also below the 1,230 buffer below it. It is something of an interesting aspect that the economic news this morning on global Purchasing Managers Indices of Services and other data is less than constructive overall.

The first of what are considered to be the “final” meetings to resolve this (as it is becoming apparent the Europeans have run out of road down which to kick the proverbial can) is occurring this morning between Chancellor Merkel and President Sarkozy in Paris. In addition to whatever we hear from them this morning it will be most important to see whether the European Central Bank gets approval to act as a purchaser of last resort for distressed European sovereign debt. For all manner of reasons reviewed previous that we will revisit again soon, we are highly skeptical the Germans will approve any such move.

Given it is a somewhat lighter government bond auction calendar this week highlighted by UK offerings tomorrow and Wednesday, the key economic data is likely to be today’s better than expected Euro-zone Retail Sales (one reason equities are higher this morning), tomorrow’s German Factory Orders, Wednesday’s German Industrial Production, Thursday’s Australian employment report, and Friday’s Chinese Retail Sales and German trade figures.

All of which highlights the degree to which it is a non-US focus this week, reinforcing the degree to which the overall influence and tone out of Europe are going to be critical. In fact, after today’s numbers the US is in its post-Employment report reporting vacuum. Other than still important Weekly Initial Jobless Claims on Thursday, the only release is Friday’s University of Michigan Confidence; that’s right, the preliminary number comes out on the 9th of the month. As we noted into the Thanksgiving holiday last month, November and December are the two months where Michigan Sentiment is a fairly premature (and somewhat unreliable) number.

General Market Observations and EXTENDED TREND IMPLICATIONS

In spite of the improvement in the equities this morning, much remains the same as noted in last Friday’s Rohr Report TrendView BRIEF UPDATE institutional edition.

Thanks for your interest.

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