Home > Uncategorized > 2011/11/29: Quick Post: Technical Projections and Comments Now Available

2011/11/29: Quick Post: Technical Projections and Comments Now Available

© 2011 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

The Current Rohr Technical Projections – Key Levels & Select Comments (as of Monday’s US Close) is are now available through the link in the right hand column. We have summarized some of the most interesting and telling tendencies below.

 

All of the trend evolution is consistent with our previous discussions late last week of shifts in the inter- and intra-asset class trend influences and technical tendencies. We refer you especially to the previous upside leader December German Bund future having spilled through 137.00 and 136.00 supports all the way to the 133.30-132.89 while the T-note and Gilt remain relatively buoyant. It is not only impressive for the massive divergence but also for the Bund now being down near what is the key low that might signal a DOWN Break from a major Double Top.

However, that is also very much akin to the dilemma of the equities bears coming in this week. For all of the success in knocking the December S&P 500 future all the way from the 1,240-30 failure straight down to the next major 1,155-45 support, the burden of proof was on the bears into that mid-1,100 support. Will the Bund remain bearish enough crack that support in a meaningful way? Well, it’s going to need to be pretty bearish, because the downside Objective is 127.60. As it is such a major decision, whether and with what sort of momentum the December Bund future breaks below 132.89 bears close scrutiny.

And it is interesting that the Bund is the hands down weak sister after such a long sojourn at the top of the ‘haven’ bid pile. However, that was always likely that once fiscal concerns were more prominent due to the European economic and equities weakness. It is just occurring sooner than would normally be the case, and especially more so than for the other ‘haven’ govvies due to the accelerated intense focus on the European fiscal situation. Yet, that should be a cautionary indication for any who believe the T-note and Gilt will act as endlessly reliable havensduring equities weakness; they is likely to come a point (even if at quite a lower equities levels) where the extreme weakness of the equities indicates an economic dislocation that hits the other govvies as well.

The activity in foreign exchange is also an indication that the sharp bear squeeze in equities this week does not necessarily represent an overall trend reversal; which might carry with it an indication of greater economic strength. If that were so it would be more likely the US dollar would have lost more of its recent haven bid that saw it retest upper .7900 resistance. And any real economic improvement should be a tonic for the euro. Yet it stalled at no better than its most recently violated support in the 1.3400-1.3360 area in spite of two solid up days in equities.

It leaves us feeling that short of much more of a solution to the European problems than is likely to occur timely, the equities are another rally in an intermediate term bear trend. Any December S&P 500 future rally to no better than the 1,230-40 area (if indeed it even gets that high) maintains recent DOWN Breaks and general weakness back down into the August-September range; the top of the initial late-August lead contract future recovery from the early-August debacle was 1,230.

Thanks for your interest.

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