Home > Uncategorized > 2011/11/07: Weekly Reports & Events Calendar Now Available

2011/11/07: Weekly Reports & Events Calendar Now Available

All in all, a very interesting week that also sees European debt auctions early in the week, followed by long-dated supply out of the US and Japan Wednesday into Thursday. After a slow start today, highlights of the reporting week include the fact that the US has returned to Standard Time in the wake of Europe and the UK doing so last week. Even with all of the major early month data and three significant central bank meetings out of the way last week, there is still quite a bit from scheduled reports and events to focus on this week.

There is quite a bit of central bank-speak, both from the Fed’s minions and European financial luminaries. We will undoubtedly be hearing quite a bit from the latter in any event, as the further evolution of the now wholly unwieldy European Sovereign Debt Crisis continues to unfold this week.

And as we have been increasingly focused upon once again of late, the US fiscal reform debate will once again return to the now pressurized compromise attempts in the less than effective Congressional Fiscal Reform Super Committee. It seems that otherwise informed observers have chosen to conveniently forget that any disarray in the process is a problem. And with no chance of any compromise in sight at present, even any last-minute deal pulled out of a hat just before the Thanksgiving legislative deadline (i.e. way too late for any possibility the Congressional Budget Office can properly review and score the plan) will fail. That is because the sheer contentious nature of the legislative process makes it very likely the rating agencies will lower the US credit rating once again.

Which is not to totally play down the importance of the economic data this week, as the fundamental news has been more important once again as well. Especially insofar as it has weakened markedly of late, the further news this month is going to be particularly interesting.

Thanks for you interest.

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  1. usikpa
    November 8, 2011 at 2:48 AM

    Somehow, equities are pricing in a POSITIVE surprise from the SUPERCOM attempts that one can not help but wonder if the chance of something really POSITIVE to be delivered this or next week is seriously understated. Any doubts?

    • November 8, 2011 at 2:35 PM

      Yeah, they are remaining very strong. Yet, I think that’s more so on a ‘bad news is good news’ psych related to central banks now on coordinated liquidity provision because of problems & weak economies. May not be any really negative fallout right away unless SUPERCOM failure brings another CRA US debt downgrade.That could get real interesting, as it will likely be worse for equities than govvies (just like last time.)

      Short of that, it sure seels like another ‘risk on’ phase, as equities strength accompanied by govvies, gold, energy, commodities speaks of hedgies trying to make back losses and willing to play the game same way as last fall into the spring… and this time it’s aided and abetted by the Santa Claus (more accurately “Portfolio Manager Claus”) rally factor from mainstream investment funds window dressing into year end.

      Just glad I’ve been resistant to getting too bearish every time S&P fails to break back below incrementally higher tech levels since early October recovery: 1,145. 1,182, 1,210, 1,230 and now 1,246. It’s been real interesting that way.

      Also as previous, ‘risk on’ asset inflation will run its course, and is ultimately very bad for consumers and the economy. As a patient bear I have the luxury of progressively higher levels from which it will ultimately fail. But as so often in the markets, patience has once again been a virtue, this time on implementing any negative view of the equities.

      It’s all in how one chooses to play the game. I’m a big short term trend reversal ‘confirmation’ fan; and it just hasn’t been there on the recent swings.

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