Home > Uncategorized > Brief Update: 2010/02/12: US Retail Sales Hypercritical into US Holiday Weekend and Key Technical Activity

Brief Update: 2010/02/12: US Retail Sales Hypercritical into US Holiday Weekend and Key Technical Activity

US Retail Sales (JAN) hypercritical into US holiday weekend and key technical activity.  As noted in Wednesday’s Weekly Overview (http://bit.ly/8Z5jbF) and followed up modestly in yesterday’s TrendView BRIEF UPDATE (http://bit.ly/aM6snG) the Greek situation was always going to be more a short term ‘save’ than any sort of major sustained ‘solution.’   That said, we surmised this was likely to turn into a rolling crisis across the European Union that will be revisited sporadically for many, many months to come. Little did we know that it could backlash so quickly from forces right there in Europe where we had expected the next critical influence (albeit which remains extremely influential) to be today’s weather-deferred release of US Advance Retail Sales. That is due to the extreme importance of economic growth as part of the solution to the Greek dilemma even as they impose significant domestic budget austerity.

▪  And the next turn in the rolling Greek/European crisis has turned up much sooner than we might have suspected in the form of some very weak Euro-zone economic data. In the first instance, Greece’s own economy contracted far more sharply than expected, 0.8% in the fourth quarter; with a downward revision to the previous quarter as well. That might have not been quite so daunting if it were not for the fallout from the Chinese monetary tightening hitting home so quickly as Euro-zone Gross Domestic Product came in much weaker than expected,…

▪ All of which leaves the actual figures and extended market reaction to the US Retail Sales (JAN) figures this morning as hypercritical (not mere hyperbole) as we expected. Further influence from those previously resilient US consumers is especially important in light of the equity markets stalling into key higher resistances on their recovery since last Friday. Including March S&P 500 future rally from interim 1,050-42 support stalling into failed 1,080-75 support, resilient sister DJIA stalling no better than 10,150-200 resistance, and previous outlandishly strong March NASDAQ 100 future topping out right into its own previously failed support in the 1780 area. All primed to become sharply bearish again on a bad number.

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