Home > Uncategorized > Weekly Overview: 2010/02/10: Equities Recover on Possible Greek Rescue… OR Washington DC Slammed Shut??!

Weekly Overview: 2010/02/10: Equities Recover on Possible Greek Rescue… OR Washington DC Slammed Shut??!

▪ While that could be seen as a typical acerbic Rohr observation on government being mostly part of the problem instead of a solution, in this case it makes sense. That is due to the degree to which a lack of meetings on various issues will defer partisan acrimony. As we have noted previous, there is no real basis for anything more than temporary agreement to review current efforts on healthcare and energy reform, as the Republicans rightfully still see advantage in opposing the bulk of Mr. Obama’s programs…  

▪ And now back to the current important changes in this week’s schedule. While that includes the cancellation of testimony from the Fed’s Mr. Tarullo on Systemic Risk and Philadelphia Fed’s Plosser speaking on the Financial Crisis, the most telling is moving the release of US Advance Retail Sales (JAN) from tomorrow out into Friday morning. And as we will demonstrate shortly, there many reasons why that sort of focus on consumer activity remains a key for our general assessment of the economy and the equity markets, and ultimately their influence back into the other asset classes.  However, before we begin that extensive review of fundamental influences a brief revisit to the technical aspects is in order. And on balance those continue to remain very much in tune with last Thursday’s TrendView GENERAL UPDATE, and we will stick to the critical highlights here.

The prospect of a Greek intervention assisted the March S&P 500 future rally from the low end of interim 1,050-42 support. While that will remain an important interim level, unless the market can recover back above the failed 1,080-75 support, it likely remains on a path toward the more major support in the 1,025-15 range.   Of course, that also caused April Gold to fail support at its December 1,075 sharp reaction low, and March Crude Oil to drop below 73.00-72.00 area, even though it has regained that support during the storm.  

And after obvious strength of govvies, short money and US dollar, they were also inclined to pull back in the face of sharp equities recovery. That said, March T-note stalling at the top end of 118-16/119-00, the still discounted short money forwards (i.e. year contracts) and US Dollar Index that had already pushed out through the top end of .7950-.8020 resistance may not pull back very far unless the equities experience a substantial recovery. Which is to say…

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