Home > Uncategorized > Brief Update: 2010/02/11: Us Federal Government in DC Closed Today, But Key Report Will Still Be Released

Brief Update: 2010/02/11: Us Federal Government in DC Closed Today, But Key Report Will Still Be Released

▪  Yesterday’s Weekly Overview  noted the dimensions of the problems that face the equities have at least as much (and possibly more so) to do with the general global consumer sentiment; and especially that of suddenly frugal consumers in the US. The further influence on those consumers will arrive shortly in the form of the Weekly US Initial Jobless Claims. It will be interesting to see whether they fall back toward the 450,000 that the economic and equity market optimists have been hoping for, or remains stubbornly high again. It is obvious that the support to address the Greek fiscal crisis being in the form of a loan is of only nominal benefit to equity markets. Which is only rightful, as it only pushes the problem down the road,…

▪ And insofar as the crux of the matter will still be whether or the burdened economies can still generate some growth to assist address of the fiscal problems, or whether they will fall into a contraction trap. And a lot of that will still have to do with the activity of the major developed economies consumers. Unfortunately they’ve become more defensive. Further indications of the continued devolution into a continuing weak psychology was apparent in this morning’s monthly foreclosure data release from housing market specialists RealtyTrac (http://bit.ly/bNAunH.) In addition to pointing out that foreclosures in January were up 15% year on year, it goes into quite a bit of detail as to how ineffective the various government projects to mitigate foreclosures have been.

▪ All that we know from a market perspective is that the Greek intervention assisted the March S&P 500 future rally from the low end of interim 1,050-42 support. While that will remain an interim level, unless the market can recover back above the failed 1,080-75 support, it likely remains on a path toward the more major support in the 1,025-15 range.   And even after today’s US Initial Jobless Claims, the equities will need to deal with tomorrow’s (slightly deferred) US Advance Retail Sales (JAN), with big risks on any miss to the downside…

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